The continuous record-breaking heat in the last 13 months has ended; But global warming continues
What is the cause of the unprecedented heat wave?
Today, to measure and compare global warming, the average temperature of the earth 150 years ago is used. The reference period is the period between 1850 and 1900. During this period, most of the greenhouse gases associated with global industrialization that increase the heat in the Earth’s oceans and atmosphere had not yet been released.
July 2024 was 1.48°C warmer than a typical July in the pre-industrial era, of which about 1.3°C is attributable to the overall global warming trend over the past decades. If this trend continues, temperatures will continue to rise at least as long as humans stabilize climate change by keeping fossil fuels underground. But global warming does not occur continuously and without fluctuations. Like the price rate in the housing market, the general trend of heating also goes up, but fluctuations are also seen along the way.
The El Nino warm phase that started a year ago is now moving towards neutral conditions
The cause of many of these fluctuations is the El Nino phenomenon. An El Nino event means a reorganization of water in the vast Pacific Ocean. El Nino is very important because of the increase in the global average temperature, not only in the Pacific Ocean, but also in the climate changes of the whole world. In between El Niño events, conditions can sometimes reverse or turn into an opposite state known as La Niña, which usually makes temperatures cooler. The oscillation between these two phenomena, El Niño and La Niña, is irregular, and El Niño conditions usually repeat every three to seven years.
The El Niño warm phase, which started a year ago and reached its peak at the end of 2023, is now moving towards neutral conditions. That is why the record breaking is now over.
El Nino was strong in 2023 and 2024, but not strong enough to fully explain last year’s record heat wave and increase in average global temperatures as the sole factor. The exact influence of other factors has not yet been fully revealed.
We know that a small part of the responsibility for heating is the responsibility of the sun, which is currently in the phase of the 11-year solar cycle. This situation means that the sun emits a little more energy towards the earth during this period than usual.
Another factor is the greenhouse gas methane, which is known as a byproduct of the fossil fuel industry, along with livestock and wetlands. The concentration of methane in the air has increased in the last decade at a faster rate than the previous decade.
Also, scientists are evaluating the impact of air pollution cleanup measures on global warming, as some air pollutants can reflect sunlight and affect cloud formation.
